China in 2030

Were China to fight by the rules according to the Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review, it would take her several decades to match the fighting power of the US Navy. In an arms buildup aiming for our present fleet size; carrier for carrier, destroyer for destroyer, and submarine for submarine, it would be 2030 before the odds were even.

America generally orders 3 or 4 carriers per decade to keep a fleet of 12 in service. The giant Arleigh Burke destroyers which began joining the Navy in 1990 will include 62 vessels by 2010, an average 4 ships per year. Our present fleet of 50 attack submarines needs to be replaced at about 2 per year, according to the experts, to keep their present strength.

This hypothetical military buildup by China to contest America’s sea mastery would doubtless be challenged by an construction program of our own. Unless of course there are those in the White House who would feel China has a “right” to match us in fighting power, similar to those who advocated détente with the Soviets in the 1960’s and 70’s. Also the idea that China would fight according to our rules, and attempt to duplicate our own military is a stretch, just as it was for Al Qaeda on 9/11.