Monday, February 06, 2006

Thomas Barnett on the QDR

I'm currently reading his first book The Pentagon's New Map and I was eargerly waiting for his view:

My opinion of the QDR is that, like all before it, it’s a snapshot in time of the correlation of forces within the Defense Department. I see a Big Peace force on the rise in the Army and Marines, who seem themselves in a Long War where they’ll be forced to win most of the time “non-kinetically.” I see a Big War force that’s holding on in the Navy and Air Force solely because, unless forced to, Cold Warrior Don Rumsfeld will both “transform” in the right direction but still try to love all his children equally...

Bush sets the right course. He just does it a way that’s completely unsustainable, and to me, in the end, that’s bad grand strategy. Bush begins the Long War but he and his crew need to exit stage right before we can get seriously prepared to win it.

With Predictions:

Army and Marines will continue to lead, providing the best generals, the best strategists, the best trainers and doctrinal entrepreneurs. These two services, along with SOCOM, will produce the bulk of the best and brightest in coming years. These generals will become the great movers and shakers...
So celebrate while you can, Big War crowd, because this was your last great gasp. Too many Marines and soldiers will die in the meantime, but that’s what happens when you choose machines over men, Big War over the Big Peace, Leviathan over SysAdmin, and “communist” China over China our inevitable strategic partner.