Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Iranian Naval Threat

The London Sunday Telegraph (via the Washington Times) details how the Iranians could seize control of the Persian Gulf in any conflict with the West:

"The [Iranian] regime is... reviewing its contingency plans to attack tankers and American naval forces in the Persian Gulf and to mine the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 15 million barrels of oil (about 20 percent of world production) passes every day. Any action in the Gulf would send oil prices soaring -- a weapon that Iran has threatened to wield. [Control of the Persian Gulf also would enable Iran to cut vital sea support links to our troops in Iraq and elsewhere in the region.]

"The naval wing of the Revolutionary Guard has in recent years practiced 'swarming' raids, using its flotilla of small rapid-attack boats to simulate assaults on commercial vessels and United States warships. ... The Pentagon is particularly sensitive to the dangers of such attacks after al Qaeda hit [and nearly sank] the USS Cole off the Yemen with a suicide boat in [Oct. 12] 2000, killing 17 American sailors [and wounding 42]."

The Telegraph goes on to quote "U.S. intelligence sources" that believe "if Iranian nuclear facilities were attacked by either America or Israel, Tehran would respond by trying to close the Strait of Hormuz with naval forces, mines and antiship missiles." One should add that such measures also could well be triggered just by sanctions.

My idea would be to hit them first: preemption with a naval blockade!