Monday, January 08, 2007

What Will Petraeus Do?

The NY Times has an idea what the new head of Coalition Forces might do in Iraq:

Under his predecessor, Gen. George Casey, the principal focus was on transferring security responsibilities to the Iraqi security forces, so U.S. troops could gradually withdraw.
Now the emphasis will shift to protecting the Iraqi population from sectarian strife and insurgent attacks.
Petraeus has not spoken publicly about his plans for Iraq. But the doctrine he has advocated suggests that he will want all five of the combat brigades slated to go to Iraq as quickly as possible instead of waiting for them to be phased in.
There has been a lively debate behind the scenes in the military about the best way to achieve the U.S. objectives in Iraq – or at least preserve stability as sectarian passions threaten to engulf the country...


Others have argued for more troops while stepping up economic efforts. Progress will come only when the Iraqi public does not feel that it needs militias or insurgent groups to ensure its security, they argue, and when it concludes that its basic economic needs are being met.
Training and advising the Iraqi forces should continue, but the Iraqis cannot be expected to shoulder the brunt of the security effort so quickly.
Petraeus has been squarely in this camp.


If I were leading the terrorist insurgency, I would lead a Tet style massive attack before the 5 brigades can surge into the country. This will not ensure victory for Al Qaeda, but outside of relying on the American anti-war effort, with only Silly Cindy at its head, there's little the enemy can do to sustain itself.