3 reasons why al-Qaeda won't win:

From Lawrence Wright's lecture on "Al-Qaeda: Past, Present and Future." and Fausta's blog:

1. Everyone is its enemy: Shiites, Israel, USA, Westeners,
NATO, Russia, China, and "atheists, pagans and hypocrites", too.

2. Most of a-Qaeda's victims are Muslims: for instance, in
Casablanca, Instanbul, Algiers, Bali.

3. Al-Qaeda offers nothing to the people that follow it.
Bin-Laden never thought in terms of politics because al-Qaeda doesn't believe in
the future. Al-Qaeda offers one thing: death. For instance, death, not victory,
over the Soviets. Al-Qaeda is a suicide machine.

And from a 2005 bio of dead Al Qaeda in Iraq leader Al-Zarqawi, is his master plan:

*9/11: The Awakening. This first stage ended in 2003 when US
entered Bagdhad.
*2d stage, up to 2006: recruiting
*3rd stage: Syria Turkey, Israel
*4th stage: 2013 al-Qaeda overthrowing Arab governments as US
power continues to decline
*5th stage: Caliphate. Israel won't be able to defend
itself
*2016 total confrontation: Caliphate Islamic army on the
attack
*2020 definitive victory, which is defined as, "falsehood will
come to an end. Islamic state w/lead mankind to shore of safety ...and
happiness".